The key is "at least 1.0C" …
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The key is "at least 1.0C" ... which means these are probabilities of exceeding values. 1.5C is included within the "greater than 1.0C" probability. It's a subtle point so understand the confusion. Here is the table and reference: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/strengths/index.php