Not sure what the SST's off the coast of Lima Peru have to do with forecasting ENSO events. Right now the SSTs in the Nino 1.2 are on fire with very warm temps. The staff are experts and look at a number of different things. One of those things are the SST models that forecast SSTs in the Nino 3.4 regions. There are a suite of models. The NMME model and IRI/CPC blend models to come up with an average. At least my experience with these models are they are good at forecasting ENSO events. Almost all of them are forecasting SSTs at or above 1.5 degrees which would be considered a strong El Nino. As of today the SST in the Nino 3.4 region is 1.2 degrees and climbing so it does look like a strong event is likely.