Thanks for the very interesting blog.

In the July blog you noted:

El Niño will peak with a maximum Niño-3.4 Index of at least 1.0 °C, a 50% chance of at least 1.5 °C, and a 20% chance of above 2.0 °C

Can you provide an update on the chance of above 2.0 C (and/or a link to the forecast probabilities that include that category)?  I could only find the following which only shows divisions up to >1.5 C.

Climate Prediction Center - El Nino Southern Oscillation (noaa.gov)