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1. I don't think they can really control the weather; if they could, I suspect that they would prevent land falling hurricanes, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, human-caused global warming, and billion dollar disasters, among other nasty and unpleasant events. (As well, if they could control it, I would bet that they would ensure crappy weather in Washington, DC, when budget negotiations were going on, so as to ensure that they got more money.) 

2. Their forecasting has gotten better since the early 1990s (when I started watching the Weather Channel every day); while their forecasts were generally good for no more than 3 to 4 days back then (the 5th day forecast was fairly correct maybe 50 to 60% of the time), the National Weather Service can now make accurate forecasts for a week in advance--and the forecast for day 7 seems to be fairly correct more often than not.  And, my father has told me that, in the 1950s, weather forecasts were only made for the next day or two, and that they really could not make accurate predictions beyond that.  So, their forecasts have been getting better over the years, and are continuing to improve.

3. As I have learned, there are a lot of elements that go into predicting what the weather for the next 3 months will be like.  El Niño is one factor (and it is an important one), but there are a lot of other ones as well, plus there are some things that cannot be predicted more than a few days or weeks in advance (such as sudden stratospheric warming events during the winter). 

On top of that, as I have noticed, they merely talk about probabilities rather than certainties when dealing with forecasts over the next few months.  As an example, the forecast for the Southern Plains (where I live) for this winter calls for a greater probability of above normal precipitation and average temperatures, though it says absolutely nothing about the odds of things like cold snaps or warm spells.  The weather here this winter may or may not turn out like that; it just means that the odds are that it will be that way.  So, I bear it in mind while understanding that it might be at least somewhat wrong, and that we will have both warm and cold days this winter.

I agree that it would be nice if they could make better long-term predictions.  However, I am sure that they will improve in the future, as they get more and better instruments for collecting weather data (such as more ocean buoys, weather balloons in more places, more weather stations on land, better satellites, etc.), and as they learn more about different weather phenomena, such as ENSO, sudden stratospheric warming events, the Arctic oscillation, atmospheric gravity waves, and the like.  In the meantime, they seem to be doing a pretty good job; more importantly, they seem like they are trying to get even better.

In reply to by JE Martinez