El Nino at the Sea surface and not reacting to the Atmosphere is probably due to the PDO still in the negative. I know Nat you thought this was not necessary, and that the PDO lags behind El Nino, and also you said that discussing the PDO is " like the tail wagging dog. " Question : Why did the PDO go to the positive before the El Nino in 2014 - 15 ? That El Nino made quite an impact on the Ohio Valley. This El Nino has had very little effect on changing the Precipitation pattern across the South. Look at the Drought monitor. In fact it looks like La Nina is still affecting the weather patterns ?