As usual, this was an interesting post.  That said, as I read it, I found myself wondering what you meant when you talked about the "average" of forecasts.  That is, when you wrote "average," did you mean the mean, the median, or the mode?  And, if you meant the mean, what were the median and mode of all of the forecasts that were used?

One other point: You might want to proofread the heading in this post that's titled "So, what's the point of making a winter predictions?"