El NIno etc
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I've seen through decades (including one time CPC forecaster) too many contradictions between El Nino/La Nina based expectations to take seriously any specific time period. Most explicit example was last year's extreme rain/snow/flooding through California totally inconsistent with designated La Nina period. But right on with El Nino expectations including the southern jet. In my opinion forecasts based on La Nina/El Nino are an exercise in futility and invoked when nothing else to go with. BTW: The mean current atmospheric circulation over US/Canada is not El Nino like and expected southern El Nino jet has yet to appear. Too many external actors at play to overwhelm whatever inherent ENSO might exist.