Thanks for the explanation, and for the detailed information about the ongoing El Niño.  It will be interesting seeing how it influences the weather here in Oklahoma this winter.

On a different note, I remember reading a previous post about how it is really hard to predict future ENSO conditions in the spring, due to something that its author referred to as the spring predictability barrier.  So, does that also influence forecasts made now about ENSO conditions next summer and fall?