Super interesting update ahead of the peak of El Niño, as global climate anomalies are inevitably linked to what ENSO does!  So far, global surface air and sea temps are quite elevated in concert with the coming El Niño peak, which is in line with expectations.

However, there are 2 questions I'm sure a few folks interested in the current ENSO phase share:

- After an unexpected three-peat La Niña, that stunningly, did not bring typical cooler ocean & air temps to the planet, what are the probabilistic indicators suggesting this current El Niño phase is likely to exhaust itself by April, potentially transitioning back to (ahem) "cool" La Niña?

- J. Hansen published an interesting note in a mid-December Columbia U piece that touches on ENSO, specifically to dispel the notion the El Niño phase is a causal driver of global warming.  By looking strictly at the Nino 3.4 Pacific region Sea Surface Temp anomaly, Hansen and his colleagues maintain the 2016 and this 2024 El Niño are successively weaker events than the massive 1998 event.  This is confusing given that many other credible sources say 2016 was / 2024 will be as "big" as 1998.  So will 2024 be a big one, or is something else going on here?  I.E. is the planet so warm that ENSO as an indicator of "warm" / "cool" years, is out the window, so to speak? 

Cheers & Happy New Year to all!