I am reading your blogs with much interest, Amy and Laura. Thanks for opening new insight into this interesting topic.

About the influence of the troposphere into the stratosphere I read some interesting research about the MJO teleconnection. According to the article, Phases 2-3 accelerate the polar vortex while phases 7-8 do the opposite.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD030771

Since the MJO is now in the phase 7 it is starting to have influence on the polar vortex speed and is expected to reverse it's direction sometime after February, 16th.

Maybe it will maybe it won't but anyway exciting events are awaiting.