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Looking at the 10 cases of spring conditions following a strong El Nino (since 1940), there is a strong signal for below normal temperatures in the southern half of the Conus and above normal temperatures in the northern Conus. In fact, parts of central Texas were below the (detrended) average in all 10 springs following a strong El Nino. For precipitation, the only place with a strong signal is the desert Southwest. The area south of a line from San Francisco to Las Vegas to Albuquerque to El Paso has very wet springs following a strong El Nino.

In reply to by Howard Stiff (…