Hi Yusa,

As of the April forecast, we're looking at about a 65% chance that the Nino-3.4 Index will be cooler than -1.0C, which is our unofficial threshold for a moderate La Nina, and a 35% chance of cooler than -1.5C, the threshold for strong La Nina. CPC posts the strength probabilities here; they'll be updated with the May 9 outlook.