To make it simple
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I always go by how the teleconections react. If the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation are negative, the Polar Vortex weakens and floods the CONUS with Frigid Arctic air. If both teleconections are positive, the Polar Vortex remains strong and stays in place. When it splits it may flood Asia or the United States. All depends on what phase the teleconections are in. Thoughts ?