Thanks Jim!

We've seen some pretty active years that started in January in El Nino and ended December in La Nina. 2010 is a good example. Now we'll have to see if the forecast La Nina develops but if it does, it will most likely provide environmental conditions conducive to a busy year.

And you hit the nail on the head with noting how warm the global oceans have been. It's certainly a wildcard in all of this, and I don't believe there is a great answer yet as to why the ocean as a whole (and the Atlantic in particular) have been so warm. Looking at forecasts, it doesn't appear that warmth will stop (outside of the tropical Pacific)