Enjoyed this post tremendously, extremely informative and a wonderful insight into how ENSO predictions work!

The "variance adjustment" mentioned in the footnote(!) is maybe the key takeaway (for me anyway). 

It is incredible predicting / measuring planet Earth's atmospheric trends is in the midst of needing these adjustments, just to keep up with imminent (not future "imagined") changes.  Are these changes authorities in positions of leadership at the international level, nation level and transnational corporate level seem to only reluctantly acknowledge as footnotes?  Sure seems like it, and sure seems kinda, well, silly, if we're being polite.

The fact the global multi-trillion dollar insurance industry & global national security bodies are extremely well apprised and following these changing trends very, very closely, should "destigmatize" all greenwashing marketing speak about this planet of 8 billion and counting! 

Got to tell it like it is, to be able to deal with what is after all!  Intellectual (and literal) smoke and mirrors aren't going to stop what's happening now!

Please keep up this excellent, crucial work ENSO team.