Cracked crystal ball is spot on... I always say climate prediction is like looking through a cloudy crystal ball, but yours is pretty good!   So I don't know about micro-climate-- the patterns we discuss on this blog are usually very large scale, but there is a lot of research and applications that works to downscale the large scale to localities.  With that said, I can report, yes, the drier conditions experienced so far in southern CA are quite consistent with La Nina (our most recent blog post discusses the typical pattern).  We're betting Nov-Jan season will hit our official La Nina threshold of -0.5C or less (will receive that value next week).  However, we are noticing that if we use a relative ENSO index (here) we probably would have declared this La Nina sooner.  This is a new index and it's something we are reviewing for the future.  Also, to your point about "whip lash" it is not uncommon for La Nina events to follow big El Nino events like we had in 2023-24 winter.  In fact we expected it to be stronger and form earlier, but that clearly didn't happen. So there is probably some percent variability of wet-to-dry described by ENSO in this situation.  But obviously fire weather is quite complex, a stew of different factors are involved, some local factors, and much more (than just ENSO) had to happen in order for these major fires to emerge.