The elevated odds for a warm winter extend to the East Coast and Appalachian Mountains states. In the North, a wetter than average winter is favored from the Ohio Valley northwestward along the U.S.-Canada border.
Cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern tropical Pacific ocean have continued and deepened during September as compared to August. Sea surface temperature is one criteria that climate experts use to monitor and predict La Niña—the cool phase of the ENSO climate pattern.
Observing temperature patterns in the lower stratosphere gives scientists clues about our planet’s changing climate. Global average temperatures in the lower stratosphere for 2013 were slightly below the 1981–2010 average.
The globally averaged sea surface temperature in 2013 was among the 10 highest on record, with the North Pacific reaching an historic high temperature. ENSO-neutral conditions and a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation pattern had the largest impacts on global sea surface temperature in 2013.
Upper ocean heat content has increased significantly over the past two decades. An estimated 70 percent of the excess heat has accumulated in the top 2,000 feet of the ocean, and the rest has flowed into deeper ocean layers.
