Across the United States, only Alaska has higher-than-average odds of a cool July. Elsewhere, July is favored to be much warmer than average. That heat forecast plays a big role in expectations for significant drought expansion this month.
The forecast of ENSO is not the only thing scientists use when making seasonal forecasts. This post looks at another predictor that often is even better to use than ENSO.
How do we verify forecasts that use probabilities? Read on to find out.
Blogger Tom Di Liberto explains the math behind some of the tests that seasonal forecasters use to check forecast skill, and then shows how skillful the past decade's winter forecasts have been.
A first look at how we evaluate seasonal forecasts. How well do our eyes do?