The 2017 tornado season across the United States has gotten off to an active start. As of April 22, 570 tornadoes have been reported, which is almost a hundred more than average.
Using a combination of observations and models, NOAA-funded scientists have found a small but significant “advanced warning” signal for heightened summer tornado activity in the U.S.: warmer-than-average water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico
Currently, the risk of regional-scale tornado outbreaks is predictable only about 7 days in advance. But NOAA scientists report that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific may provide a month or more of advance warning of an elevated risk for tornado outbreaks.
Scienitsts find connection between El Niño and fewer spring tornadoes in the south-central United States.