Blooming Thermometers

Lisa Gardiner, et al., National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

In this activity, students develop an understanding of the relationship between natural phenomena, weather, and climate change: the study known as phenology. In addition, they learn how cultural events are tied to the timing of seasonal events. Students brainstorm annual natural phenomena that are tied to seasonal weather changes. Next, they receive information regarding the Japanese springtime festival of Hanami, celebrating the appearance of cherry blossoms. Students plot and interpret average bloom date data from over the past 1100 years.

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Notes from our reviewers

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Consider an extension: Students might struggle with understanding the difference between regional climate and local weather in this activity. This presents a great opportunity for the educator to teach the link between weather (that influences the cherry blossom in a single year) and the regional climate - a good way of engaging students in this thinking process. (This is not done explicitly in activity and needs to be added by educator.) Ideally students would look at the original data source and not just at the compiled data that is an average of centuries. Exercise only asks students to do one graphing exercise - could easily be extended.
Simple graphing exercise that illustrates the scientific process involved in phenology. This method is used in Holocene paleoclimatology, not just for Japan and cherry blossoms but also from church records in Europe for apple blossoms etc., if educator wants to give additional examples. Data ends in 1956, which is unfortunate. Activity can still be done with this data because it covers 10 centuries, but it would be easier for students to relate to this exercise if more recent data was given. See for more recent data: "Phenological data series of cherry tree flowering in Kyoto, Japan, and its application to reconstruction of springtime temperatures since the 9th century," by Aono and Kazui, 2008, International Journal of Climatology, page 908. Educator be aware - Activity could lead to the misconception that the warmest period was the 10th century. For generalized trends in changes in the phenology of different species see: Root, T. L., J. T. Price, K. R. Hall, S. H. Schneider, C. Rosenzweig, and J. A. Pounds (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421:57-60. Comment from scientist: Deducing a global climate signal from cherry blossoms in Japan, as it is done in this exercise (see learning objectives), is wrong and scientifically not supported - this cannot be a learning objective or it will lead to misconceptions about proxies and global climate relations. It is a local climate proxy. A lot of background materials for educators.