Several times a year the MJO contributes to various extreme events in the United States, including Arctic air outbreaks during winter across the central and eastern portions of the country.
A first look at how we evaluate seasonal forecasts. How well do our eyes do?
How do changes in the equatorial Pacific Ocean impact places much farther away? The answer for the tropics, at least, lies in changes to the equator-wide atmospheric circulation called the Walker Circulation.
Sea surface temperatures are up. So why haven't forecasters declared El Niño conditions?
One of ENSO’s most important influences is to the Indian Monsoon—the large-scale circulation pattern that brings the Indian subcontinent the vast majority of its yearly rainfall. And while La Niñas tend to increase monsoon rainfall, the monsoon’s relationship with El Niño can be a little more complicated.
How does El Niño affect U.S. winter temperature and precipitation?
Chances that an El Niño will occur by summer are above 70%, hitting 80% by the fall. But subsurface temperature anomalies have tapered off some from earlier this spring, decreasing the odds the event will be as strong as the El Niño of 1997-98.