Between the weekly forecast and a seasonal outlook—and often less accurate than both—sit “sub-seasonal” weather predictions. In this profile, atmospheric scientist Libby Barnes talks about her work leading a NOAA task force whose members are trying to overcome the special challenges of forecasting over the 2-week to 2-month horizon.
Using a combination of observations and models, NOAA-funded scientists have found a small but significant “advanced warning” signal for heightened summer tornado activity in the U.S.: warmer-than-average water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico
2016-2017 U.S. Winter Outlook
October 20, 2016
For New Englanders, the saying “as American as apple pie” may as well be “as New England as lobster.” But warming sea surface temperatures from climate change are forcing populations of the American lobster to higher latitudes than ever before—and upending fishing communities on the New England coast.
This year's Atlantic hurricane outlook comes with relatively high uncertainty. One challenge: figuring out if the Atlantic Ocean climate pattern that favors active hurricane seasons has shifted gears.
Will the Great Barrier Reef recover?
May 26, 2016
Most of the continental United States is facing elevated chances of well above average summer temperatures, according to the latest outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Based on rainfall changes alone, half of the island groups in a recent study were projected to get drier by the end of the century. When scientists also accounted for more evaporation due to rising temperatures, nearly three-quarters of the islands studied were projected to face freshwater stress.
For three days in 2005, flooding from Hurricane Katrina cut off the only road to Port Fourchon. Officials had to decide: did the risk of future flooding justify the cost of raising the roadway out of the Gulf's rising waters?