ENSO is a complicated thing to model. What are the challenges, and how can we overcome them?
Global Climate Modeling
El Nino conditions strengthened in March. Where do forecasters think we're going from here?
The model predictions during 2014 were not that shabby. A major, strong El Niño was not well justified by the predictions.
After some very cold weather this month, folks are likely wondering if the early chill is a harbinger of things to come this winter. "Not necessarily," explains Mike Halpert of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in this week's ENSO blog post.
The chance of an El Nino has dropped to about 65%. What led to this change in the forecast?