RE: Kelvin Waves and Westerly Winds...
These are all good questions with uncertain answers from my perspective. There is no one distinct area that is important. Any wind anomaly over the equatorial (5S-5N) Pacific is something to watch and monitor because of its potential influence on surface and/or subsurface temperatures. In general, wind anomalies that are persistent or strong (i.e. for El Nino, not just westerly winds in the *anomaly* but also in the *total winds*) have more of an impact than more fleeting, weaker anomalies.
As for the impact of the most recent westerlies, I believe it has already helped to keep some of the surface warmth in place (for example, we saw an abatement in the decrease of the Nino-3.4 index over the past week). Whether it helped to force a new oceanic Kelvin wave, that still needs to play out a bit more in the observations, but there is a chance it did.
I find these indices of subsurface ocean temperatures to be useful. They are based on data from the NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS):
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/h…
More GODAS information is available here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/