In southern Africa we have become accustomed to associating strong El Nino events with severe droughts. Presumably this is not going to happen this year, but all the discussion I see seems to refer to the northern hemisphere and mainly confined to the two sides of the Pacific. Is there any thinking about how climate change is affecting El Nino development ? We know that the melting of the Antarctic ice is affecting currents and wind patterns over the Southern Ocean. Does this not have an effect further north ?