I agree that using one signal - ENSO - to make near term climate predictions, this also is a key in CPC long-lead predictions. Primarily because of the relative predictability and statistical correlations to 'weather' in many areas of the Globe, it has credible validity. For local, downscaled outlooks I have found a multi-signal approach works far better. While the ENSO suggests the SSTA component, others such as SOI, AO, EP/NP and NAO reflect the atmospheric response. By filtering analog years via a multi-signal approach we have found useful skill in locally generated, seasonal outlooks. The basic premise is simple: Certain ENSO events trigger certain atmospheric responses; these responses are seen in the various atmospheric signals, typically at a lagged interval. By looking at the trends in ENSO and the trends in the atmospheric response, one can give a range of outcomes that enhance the ENSO only approach. The moderate El Nino of 2009/10 is a good example. While the tools did not predict the record negative [AO] levels achieved that winter, it did suggest the negative AO/NAO pattern that would destructively influence the classic El Nino signal. And that it did. The Red River VAlley of the North was colder and snowier than an El Nino only prediction would have suggested. While the predictability of short term signals such as AO, NAO, EP/NP etc. is undeniable, there are statistical approaches that can help 'hedge ones bets' as to the gross phase for the next few seasons. Obviously, not perfect, but an enhancement to the ENSO signal approach alone. It obviously goes well beyond simply looking at a signals value as calculated at CPC; actually looking at the various patterns of surface pressure, mid level height anomalies and jet structure associated with these values is crucial. So, there is help in diagnosing the ENSO signal and the impact on climate & weather in your area. It takes a lot of time, effort - and yes good old fashioned synoptic reasoning. Basic Attribution at its finest. It is as imperfect as any technique, but does have utility when used with the limitations in mind.