The model forecast regarding
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The model forecast regarding the two-year El Niño starting out weak in 2014-15 and then going strong for 2015-16 definitely falls in line with my theory that for ever La Niña that begins an ENSO cycle, it must go El Niño at the trailing end of the respective cycle to balance it out. 2007-08, for example, was a moderate La Niña, then 2008-09 was ENSO-neutral, and 2009-10 was an El Niño whose SOI readings were almost exactly just as negative as 2007-08's SOIs were positive. 2002-03, as another example, had SOI readings that, with the exception of one single spike, were almost identically negative to 2000-01's positive values. 2004-05 appears to have been the same as the above cases when compared to 2003-04 on the Australian BoM's graphs (fluctuating SOI's usually mean very weak ENSO amplitude), and 2005-06 SOIs completely mirror 2006-07 across the neutral line.
With the above cases considered and examined, I was able to conclude that this current cycle began with the exceptionally strong 2010-11 La Niña event, which is by many standards the strongest La Niña on record. That was followed by weak La Niña (which began as strong, then faded) for 2011-12, then ENSO-neutral for 2012-13 and 2013-14, followed by 2014-15, which, just like the 2011-12 La Niña, began as high-amplitude and faded to low-amplitude. These models of a double-dip El Niño that would end up weak for 2014-15 only to go (some might argue unprecedentedly) strong for 2015-16 to offset the 2010-11 La Niña, then, only back up this theory of mine.