First, I am Remy, I am 16 almost 17 going into Junior year in High School. I live in NY near NYC, and have been working with Joe D'Aleo, Bill Gray and other members of wxbell for a year now researching Ocean circulations, teleconnections, oscillations and other large scale weather patterns and their relation to eachother and local weather. I also have my own website which I run with my friend, we do weather forecasts and outlooks. Go take a look! Its pretty sweet :) www.weatherinthehud.com I wrote this a few weeks ago: Regarding the El Nino, and the upcoming winter…Since I got back this is basically all I have been looking at. At camp I read 2 books, one called El Nino by J. Madeleine Nash, a fantastic book, and another book To Follow The Water by Dallas Murphy, also a fabulous book. I learned a ton in both these books on how the El Nino works and the oceans. So, using what I learned and then looking at the hundreds of available resources I looked at the El Nino. **I am not including the graphics here because it would take up too much room, and they are not 100% necessary** Right now we have the presence of the El Nino, obviously. We have the warm waters in the Eastern Pacific along the equator, east of the International Dateline. Most of warmest waters right now can be seen off the coast of western South America with values above 3°C anomaly just off the coast. It is interesting to note that during the ’97-’98 Super Nino, we saw equally warm waters in the same region, but much more spread out throughout the Eastern Pacific. In addition, SST’s worldwide were a much different scenario, with cold pools in the gulf of Alaska and Western Pacific and Cold Atlantic (although warming) With this 2015 Nino the warmest waters are much more concentrated to the area closest to the South American Coast. In addition to this, the SST setup worldwide is completely different as well. We have a very warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska and around Alaska, cold pool in western Pacific, very warm gulf, very warm pacific in general from Alaska to South America, and a warm Atlantic with warm pools off the NE Coast and Greenland in the Labrador sea. As we all know, this past winter the main driver was not the NAO, as we had a positive NAO for the most part, it was the SST’s in the pacific which set up the ridge in the West and trough in the East. Regardless of the El Nino situation this Winter, we still do have much of the same SST set up as we did last winter. This will still play a role, although influenced by the El Nino. One thing that I have been noticing in the forecasts for the winter I have seen so far, which in of itself is very far away, is that the maps look identical to that of a “typical” El Nino year. There is never a “typical” El Nino year because there are other things that will effect the El Nino and will change the look. The El Nino is not the only player out there. IMHO. So, anyway, the warm +PDO is still very much entrenched in the Pacific, as it has been. The NAO for this winter will again, likely be + as the AMO goes – in its multi-decadal cycle. Looking back at El Nino years where we had a positive NAO we can get 1982-83, ’72-’73, and ’65-’66. These stayed positive DEC-JAN and turned Negative in February, except for ’72-’73. If you recall, last winter we had a similar situation where the NAO did go negative for a brief time in February. In ’82-’83 we also had a warm PDO for DJF along with +NAO DJ, negative in F. The Models for the last 2 months so have been flirting around with the strength of the ENSO as we get into fall and Winter, however they have been more or less consistent with its ending. Important to note that the overall Model Plume of ENSO predictions from Mid July with 16 dynamic models and 8 statistical models still have a mean strength for the El Nino only getting up to a maximum of around +1.9-2.0°C anomaly in NINO3.4. This has been more or less consistent for a while. The height of the Event should peak in around OND/NDJ at this point, in the middle of fall. I am going to keep stressing, the +PDO will have a big effect on the winter pattern, as it has for the last 2 seasons. In ’97-’98 we had a +EPO and +NAO/AO, which allowed the Pacific Air to entrench itself in the eastern portion of the USA. However, with a +PDO which will want to keep ridging in the west, and a –EPO, this will be more difficult. That being said, the NAO/AO will still be positive. It is very likely that we will have a warm start to winter before it changes on a dime, like last year in late January. 1966 and 2007 are good examples with weakening in the eastern basins for SST’s which led to a pattern flip in late January into February of those winters allowing for cold air and some good snows. 1983 was also a good year with very good snows in the NE and Mid Atlantic. The bottom line, I think, is that this is a hit or miss winter. If we continue the El Nino warming and develop a more traditional look like in 97-98 then the idea of a great winter for snow lovers will dwindle more. However, I think this will be like last winter (not as cold!) and turn on a dime in the latter half as the El Nino dies down and the PDO has a better chance of really taking cold. I like 1983, and 2007 for this. Winter is still very far off and as we all know things change fast and many times, plenty of time for forecasting it. If we can get the –NAO for a brief period, even if as brief as last winter, then this will help get snows and cold. The PDO should help with that as well. Lets hope the snow in the northern reaches stays and falls hard, and lets get epic Eurasian snowfall to boost the cold air a bit….lots of things to look at, lots of time. But anyway, just my opinion for now after 4 days of looking at the El Nino and tons of plots which I unfortunately cannot put in here for lack of space.