Submitted by tom.diliberto…
Submitted by tom.diliberto on
To add onto what Michelle said and to touch on the mean state.
Section 4.5.3.2
"There is no consensus on changes in amplitude of ENSO SST variability across CMIP iterations. The main factors driving the diversity of ENSO SST amplitude change in climate models are internal variability, SST mean warming pattern, and model systematic biases."
"The response of the tropical Pacific mean state to anthropogenic forcing is characterized by a faster warming on the equator compared to the off-equatorial region, a faster warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific compared to the central tropical Pacific (e.g., El Niño-like mean SST warming, see Chapter 7, Section 40 7.4.4.2), and a weakening of the Walker circulation in most models. Those models with a El Niño-like warming tend to project a strengthening of ENSO SST variability whereas models with a La Niña-like warming tend to project a weakening of variability"
It's important to note that first statement. That the changes in amplitude of ENSO SST variability are driven by multiple factors.
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter...