Yes, the forecasts are indicating that the west-to-east winds are about to reverse direction in the next week or so (near March 4 based on the most recent forecasts). If it occurs at this time, it likely won't be considered a third SSW. While the wind reversal in mid-January was short-lived and weak, most datasets observed it. However, for the mid-February event, not all datasets met the SSW criteria that the wind reversal is observed in the daily mean.

Regardless of the dataset, this next reversal will still be the 2nd of the season for the following reasons:

1) For the datasets that didn't observe a wind reversal in mid-February, this next event will be considered the second SSW.

2) For the datasets that did observe a wind reversal in mid-February, this next one is occurring within 20 days of the previous one (Feb 19 and ~Mar 4) so it will all be considered one event.

Because the datasets don't all agree that winds reversed in mid-February, this means that the start date of the warming could vary February and March depending on dataset.

Based on the current forecasts, this wind reversal looks to be larger and longer-lived than the previous one(s). We have another post coming out on Friday that will have more information on what's driving this latest disruption.