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Nature certainly can humble us in many ways, and the climate system often throws us curveballs (so it's not just for us ENSO forecasters and researchers). I agree that the magnitude of recent heat is still a mystery, but I disagree with the statement that "A spike that lasts a year or more is not consistent with the secular, monotonic rise in temperature predicted by a GHG model." The rise of global mean temperatures in response to GHG forcing does not preclude the competing or reinforcing effects of internal variability or other radiative forcing agents, which could last days or decades. So, I agree that it's unsettling that we don't have a definitive answer for this spike, but that shortcoming doesn't necessarily say anything about consistency or inconsistency with the influence of GHG forcing on global mean temperature. 

In reply to by Paul Pukite (@whut)