ENSO Blog

The ENSO Diagnostic Discussion issued by the CPC and the IRI on May 8, 2014, continues the El Niño watch first announced in March, saying “the chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during the summer.” Observed conditions in the Pacific and several forecast tools are lending confidence to the forecast, but substantial uncertainty remains, including when the El Niño would start and how strong it will be. Here, we’ll take a quick look at where both the confidence and the uncertainty are coming from in this forecast. Observed conditions have been trending consistently from neutral toward El Niño-like (warm) conditions for the past few months. A strong dow…   Read article

Several weeks ago, the NOAA Climate Program Office and Climate.gov signed off on our idea to host a blog dedicated to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In a rather gutsy (some would argue delusional) move, they turned over the keys to a team of climate scientists–actual nerds!–to discuss the current El Niño Watch and offer perspectives and analysis on the progression of El Niño and related topics. Here is our team... Anthony (Tony) Barnston is the chief forecaster at the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (within the Earth Institute of Columbia University). He has 30 years of experience in ENSO and seasonal climate …   Read article

Go to any agency that is focused on weather or climate forecasting and you’ll hear scientists buzzing to one another about “ENSO” (pronounced “en-so”).   After glancing at the stereotypical scientist, you might immediately assume “En-so” is a Star Wars character, but you would be mistaken.  ENSO is one of the most important climate phenomena on Earth due to its ability to change the global atmospheric circulation, which in turn, influences temperature and precipitation across the globe.  We also focus on ENSO because we can often predict its arrival many seasons in advance of its strongest impacts on weather and climate. Though ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, …   Read article