The forecast seems stuck on repeat. Why are we still calling for El Niño?
Forecasters are still calling for a 65% chance of El Nino conditions being met in the next few months. Isn't this late for the start of an ENSO event?
The chance of an El Nino has dropped to about 65%. What led to this change in the forecast?
Sea surface temperatures are up. So why haven't forecasters declared El Niño conditions?
Chances that an El Niño will occur by summer are above 70%, hitting 80% by the fall. But subsurface temperature anomalies have tapered off some from earlier this spring, decreasing the odds the event will be as strong as the El Niño of 1997-98.
The forecast models are largely in agreement that SSTs will continue to trend upward, with the majority of models indicating a Niño3.4 index value above 0.5°C by early summer. Forecast show the chance of El Niño increasing during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during the summer.