ENSO Blog

This is a guest post by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science. Dr. Klotzbach has been the lead author of CSU’s seasonal hurricane forecasts since 2006. A large number of groups, including government agencies (see NOAA hurricane forecast), universities, and private sector companies, currently issue Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts.  Dr. William Gray pioneered seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic in 1984, and our group at Colorado State University has issued predictions every year since that time.  Over 20 publicly available forecasts are displayed on a website that our group co-developed with the Barcelona Sup…   Read article

Now that it’s summer in the Northern Hemisphere, we’re more firmly on the other side of the infamous spring barrier. So, forecasters have growing confidence that this coming winter in the Northern Hemisphere will most likely be a continuation of “ENSO-Neutral,” and dominated by near average temperatures across the Pacific Ocean. The most recent forecast by CPC/IRI favors the continuation of these conditions through the winter 2017-18 (56% chance during December-February 2017-18). ENSO-Neutral = El Niño or La Niña is not present Following some weakly warm conditions last month, this past month was characterized by an impressive span of near-average sea surface temperatures over the trop…   Read article

First things first—many thanks to our newest ENSO blogger, Nat Johnson, for covering the top-of-the-month post this month while I was scuba diving with manta rays. This also frees me up to write a post I’ve been thinking about for a while: an entire post about dynamical climate models! Models are a critical tool for climate forecasters, but I haven’t had enough column inches to get into how they really work. What’s a model? Not this kind… If you say “model” to a weather or climate forecaster, she’ll immediately think of a computer program that takes in information on current conditions and outputs a picture of potential future conditions. Here, I’ll be talking about dynamica…   Read article

Editor’s Note: Welcome to Dr. Nat Johnson, our newest ENSO blogger! Nat is an associate research scholar who is affiliated with Princeton University and NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. He has an extensive research record studying large-scale climate dynamics, with a special focus on predictability of subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (hello ENSO!). We’re excited to have him on our team.  The latest ENSO forecast by CPC/IRI is holding steady since last month and favoring ENSO-neutral conditions (50-55% chance) into the winter of 2017-18. Although not favored, El Niño development has an elevated chance of occurring (~35-45%) relative to the lo…   Read article

Oh, my sweet TAO moored buoy array, bobbing ever-so humbly in that great expanse of water scholars call the Pacific Ocean. How I long…nay. yearn, for your daily observations of oceanographic and atmospheric variables.  The simple act of looking upon your temperature readings makes my heart flutter with joy. While my life’s journey may never cross upon your moored “shores,” be content with the knowledge of the immense impact your existence has had upon the thoughts of this one modest man.  Oh may generations to come delight in your continued work so that they too may feel the joy of science and physics that you bestow upon me. Forever thy devoted servant, Thomas Ok, you…   Read article