Blogs

We’re sticking a fork in this El Niño and calling it done. After spending more than a year above average, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific had mostly returned to near average by the end of May. Forecasters don’t think we’ll remain in neutral territory for long, though. There’s an approximately 65% chance that sea surface temperatures will drop into the La Niña realm (more than 0.5 degrees below normal) by the July – September period. This chance increases to around 75% by the fall. I’ll get into what’s behind these numbers in a bit, but first, let’s bid a fond farewell to the big 2015-2016 El Niño. The king is dead! As we’ve reiterated many time…   Read article

In climate monitoring, we often use the term “outcome” to describe the results of a season. For example, “For most of the United States, seasonal outcomes during spring 2012 included a record-warm March and a record-warm spring.” Outcomes in climate—like in life—are a combination of factors. And at certain times of year—like certain times in life—different factors emerge as relatively more important to an outcome. In climate, spring dampness is one of those factors that emerges as important for warm season outcomes, particularly for the interior of the continent. This week, we’ll go Beyond the Data to examine how spring precipitation influences summer temperatures, and why this mat…   Read article

This is a guest post by Dr. Kim Cobb of the Georgia Institute of Technology. She runs a lab focused on paleoclimate (the study of past climates) and climate change whose mission is to uncover the mechanisms of global climate change, both natural and human-caused, in order to inform projections of future climate change.  She has also been given a National Science Foundation CAREER award and a Presidential Early Career award for Scientists and Engineers. Her research also lets her travel to places like Borneo and the Line Islands in the Pacific, making us question whether we made correct choices in our professional careers. You can follow along with her lab’s exploits on twitter @coralsnc…   Read article

This week, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (and several other institutions) reported April 2016 to be the warmest April on record for the planet. If broken temperature records seem to you like, well, a broken record, you’re onto something: all of the last twelve months now hold the “Warmest [INSERT MONTH HERE] on Record” title. That’s twelve months in a row, and that’s never happened. But that global average is just that: an average. Each month—even the warmest ones—bring pockets of cold. Conversely, they also bring regions that are colossally warm. This is true over time, too. In recent decades, as month-to-month weather fades into a clearer signal of climate, regio…   Read article

There’s a 75% chance that La Niña will be in place by the fall, meaning sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific at the equator will be more than 0.5°C below average. It’s possible the transition from El Niño to La Niña will be quick, with forecasters slightly favoring La Niña developing this summer. What’s behind this reasonably confident forecast? Current conditions Sea surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 region, our primary index for ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), have been cooling steadily since they peaked at 2.4°C (4.3°F) above average back in November. Recently, cooling has accelerated, and April was 1.2°C above average using ERSSTv4, our most historically consisten…   Read article