How the Climate System Works

Climate forecasters often describe the Arctic Oscillation as the “wild card” of the winter forecast. So far in 2011, the Arctic Oscillation has been in its positive phase, playing the card that favors a milder winter in the eastern United States.

Molly Heller is part of a team of scientists who processes flasks of air samples in NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, CO. Week in and week out, Heller and her colleagues unpack sealed glass flasks shipped back to Boulder from dozens of remote sites around the world. What’s inside is priceless: air captured from a site near Tasmania’s Cape Grim; from Summit, Greenland; the Canary Islands; the South Pole.

Compared to the large ozone hole that forms over Antarctica each year, Arctic ozone loss has generally been much more limited. But in 2011, Arctic ozone declined to surprisingly low levels. What did climate have to do with it?

Each summer, the seasonal unraveling of the Arctic’s blanket of ice exposes large areas of the ocean to solar heating. The smaller the ice extent, the larger the potential warming influence. Arctic sea ice extent in July 2011 was the lowest for that month in the satellite record.