August 2015 El Niño update: Supercalifragilisticexpealidocious

The latest state-of-the-art models are run with global sea surface temperatures (including Blob and warm Indian ocean) and most of them are still providing El Nino-like impacts over the United States.  Because the models include these features, at this point,  we are not projecting that the Blob and warm Indian Ocean would substantially disrupt the El Nino signal.  Of course, keep in mind this winter could also be influenced by other, less predictable features like the AO/NAO and PNA.  El Nino only allows forecasters to potentially "explain" a certain amount of rainfall or temperature variability, which is why we never guarantee these impacts.

Earlier on this blog, we posted an article by Dennis Hartmann  ( LINK  ) who discussed a possible tropical Pacific link with the Ridiculously Reslient Ridge (RRR) over the U.S.  The tropics now have a very different pattern because of El Nino and, so as a result, it is more likely that the the RRR will weaken as we get into the winter. 

For more local impacts, you might consider seeking out your local NWS office for more specific information.   At CPC there is a collection of large-scale El Nino impacts and diagrams which you can review by clicking HERE (though please note the box and whisker links are more regionally focused). 

Also, you can access the CPC seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks HERE .  These are updated on the third Thursday of every month.  At this time, there is a very slight tilt toward above-average precpitation for the Bay area, but this may change as we move closer to the event.  Also keep in mind these maps show shading that reflects probabilities (% chance of) of the *favored* category, so there are still chances for near or below average precpitation. 

Thanks for your question. The 65/66 and 82/83 maps were lifted out of the second graphic in this previous blog post (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/united-states-el-ni%C3…). That graphic includes all El Niño events of the past 50 years, including the 57/58 that you mention. For this article, we lifted out two strong events with opposite precipitation anomalies becuase we wanted to emphasize the point that in any given year--even a strong El Niño--other random climate influences can overrule the classic wet signal.

If you look at that graphic, it shows that out of the 7 strong events that have occurred since 1950, 6 of them led to wetter than average winters of various magnitudes in CA. But in 65/66, despite the strong El Niño, CA was drier than average. El Niño is about increased probability, not certianty. That was the main point we were tring to convey by only showing the two examples.

I'm not one of the scienitsts blogging here, simply the editor, but i know from previous blog posts that while "analog" forecasting--trying to predict what will happen based on seeimingly similar past events--isn't completely meaningless, it's usefulness has significant constraints. Even seemingly insignificant differences between one event and another can allow the climate system to evolve along two radically different pathways, leading to different outcomes.

And statististically speaking, when you try to pull out a single year as being "most like" the current conditions and try to infer the future based heavily on that one case, you're essentially trying to draw statistical inferences from a sample size of 1. It would be like trying to infer what all dogs look like based on having seen a single dog.

Thanks for your comment. It's one we hear a lot in a variety of contexts. Unfortuantely, your state's vastness, wildness, and low population density go hand in hand with a sparse observational record that makes it much harder to describe historical climate patterns statewide. However, in a blog from last year, MIke Halpert answered a similar question with the following response:

There isn't a well defined precipitation signal over Alaska in any case.  However, winters are typically warmer than average over large parts of the state during El Nino years.

Not necessarily. For the latest winter season forecasts, please check out the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal forecast page . For the December-February period, their is no clear indication that conditions are favored to be average, above, or below-normal this winter so there is an equal chance of all three.

Not necessarily. For the latest winter season forecasts, please check out the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal forecast page . For the December-February period, their is no clear indication that conditions are favored to be average, above, or below-normal this winter so there is an equal chance of all three.

The MJO indeed can have a reinforcment/cancellation effect on an El Nino event.  For a great intro on the MJO, check out this guest post on the ENSO Blog by Jon Gottschalck.

Depending on where the rising and sinking sections of an MJO event are located, they can be associated with an enhancement or suppression of the trade winds. In some cases, an MJO could enhance the trade winds which would be the exact opposite of what you would expect from an El Nino. Or vice versa.

For the latest winter season forecasts, please check out the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal forecast page . For the December-February period, the latest forecast shows a tilt in the odds to warmer than average conditions for the north central portion of the UNited states with an equal chance for above, below or average conditions across the central US. 

For the latest winter season forecasts, please check out the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal forecast page . For the December-February period, the latest forecast shows a small tilt in the odds to wetter than average conditions for the Phoenix area.

Thanks for writing. Keep in mind first that "godzilla" or not, El Niño and La Niña are not like a hurricane or major winter storm that will "hit" the West Coast. It's a disruption of the typical temperature and wind circulation across the tropical Pacific, and the side effects are felt "downstream" in the atmosphere. It's like a tree falling across a creek way upstream of where you live. The tree doesn't hit you, but the flow past your house may be stronger or weaker, depending on how the tree blocks the creek's usual course.

That said, based on everything I've learned by editing this blog in the past year, in the US, the impacts of El Niño and La Niña are felt most strongly in the winter, but again the influence is not like the arrival of a hurricane or any other individual weather event. Rather, the influence shows up on the seasonal average temperatures and precipitation.

Aside from its influence on the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, El Niño and La Niña have little detectable influence on summer climate across the U.S. Instead, their influence is strongest in winter.

Bear in mind, though, that the influence often won't be detectable until winter is over and scienitsts can tally up the seasonal averages. For places that tend to have wetter winters during El Niño, that elevated wetness can be the result of say, a handful more rainy days per month than usual, or somehwat more rain per storm than usual. It doesn't result from the "arrival" of a single mega-rainstorm of some kind.

In other words, El Niño is not a discrete event like a hurricane or a tsunami that will "arrive" or "hit" the West Coast at a single moment in time. You don't need to "head for the hills" to escape it ;-)

As far as the descriptions of the event as  "Super El Niño" or even "Godzilla El Niño," I hope you recognize that those are not scientific or official descriptions. They are coloful, memorable phrases that various folks have used informally to talk about this event. As Emily writes above, the current forecasts predict that the sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific "ENSO3.4" monitoring region will peak this winter at 2C. Should that come to pass, it will be among the largest El Niño-related temperature anomalies on record, but it wouldn't be the largest: it would be weaker than both the 1997-98 and 1982-83 events. (You can see for yourself here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ens…)
 

Hi Ismael, I would recommend visiting the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center (PEAC) for seaonal rainfall and sea level forecasts for islands in the Pacific.