How to interpret climate outlooks and make $$$$ millions.* **OK, maybe an overstatement, but you'll at least understand probabilistic forecasts better.
What's behind the drop in probabilities this month? And why might forecasting this event be particularly tricky?
Although ENSO forecasting using past case analogs is fun, even slight dissimilarities between the past cases and the present case are certain to mess up the forecast.
How can warming at Earth’s surface have slowed when energy accumulation is growing? The role of our oceans—including ENSO—is key.
How El Niño is like different flavors of ice cream. Seriously.
The forecast seems stuck on repeat. Why are we still calling for El Niño?
The forecasts often provided useful information for the coming few months, but had more limited accuracy and value in forecasting beyond that.